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Ray Willis
Spring Semester 2008
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Instructor: |
Raymond E. Willis |
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Time: |
Section 01, Thursday, 6:00 – 9:00 p.m. |
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Begins January 10th – Ends April 17th 2008 |
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Location: |
St. Paul Campus, (classroom subject to change) |
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Telephone: |
651-646-0375 (Office) |
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Required Text: |
There are no required textbooks. There will be a CD of articles and other readings. Other materials will be handed out during the course. Optional supplementary materials will be available in the St. Thomas library. |
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Required Background: |
There are no specific statistical skills required. Students should know how to set up and use a spreadsheet for data analysis including manipulating graphics (not just using the pre-programmed defaults) and using simple statistical and matrix (array) functions. Readings to be covered before the course and a pre-test of the required skills are available. For those needing assistance, there will be a tutorial from 6 to 9 pm on January 3. Unless you routinely use the material covered in the pre-test, I strongly urge you to attend this tutorial. |
| Course Methodology: | The course will develop approaches to analyzing the socio-technical environment and anticipating future changes through lecture, readings, and individual projects. |
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Course Description: |
This course assists the student in developing a framework for understanding the technological environment and the process of technological change and in developing technological and strategic foresight. Topics will include:
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Course Objectives: |
This course is designed to help present and future technology managers:
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Learning Objectives: |
The student will study and discuss issues in anticipating future technological change. This will include an analysis of the forces which have driven or impeded change in the past and using this analysis in anticipating potential future developments. Techniques will include trend modeling and extrapolation; technical, economic, and sociocultural models of change; and scenario construction and use. |
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Learning Outcomes: |
Expected Learning Outcomes:
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| Course Methodology | Each student will choose a specific topic for study such as a technology or set of related technologies, an industry or market, or an economic/political region or country and will develop materials that can be applied in anticipating future technological and social change in the topic area. These student topics will form a major part of class discussions. Students should be prepared to discuss their progress as it relates to topics discussed in class. |
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Assignments: |
During the semester, the student will be expected to collect necessary data, apply analytical techniques as appropriate and/or assigned, and submit assigned reports as described below. There will be no final examination. |
| Readings |
Readings
have been selected to support and expand on material presented in class. I have limited the number of assigned
readings because you will each be working on separate topics and will need to
develop your own reading lists.
You may find it helpful to read this material before the class or may
prefer to wait until after the class.
Some readings will be shown in Boldface
type. These will form
bases for class discussion and must be
read in advance of the session for which they are listed. I have not always included the references cited in the papers. If you are interested, I will be glad to supply them. |
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Academic Integrity: |
All students are expected to understand and follow the University of St
Thomas policies on Academic Integrity. These are described at: Exams: Exams are one of the instruments used to evaluate the knowledge gained by an individual student of the class subject matter, and the progress towards meeting the outcomes of the class and the degree. To this end all exams (in class or take home) are intended to represent the effort of the individual and not a group effort unless specifically stated otherwise. A note on Plagiarism: Large amounts of material should not be copied from the internet or other sources and included as “padding.” Simply give me the citation and I can look it up myself if necessary. If needed and appropriate, short excerpts can be included. They should be placed in quotation marks and with the appropriate reference cited. You may use (quantitative) data from other sources with proper credit given but any tables or graphs should be your own work and should follow the guidelines given in the notes. Do not simply copy them from other material or the internet. I consider plagiarism highly unethical and completely unacceptable – unwitting plagiarism is just as bad as that which is deliberate. |
| Grading Policy: | There will be three graded reports totaling 100 points. Assignments 2 and 3 will be graded on the basis of 25 points each. A "20" will mean that the submission meets my expectations for the assignment – approximately a “B”. Higher grades will be assigned for analyses that go beyond my expectations. Assignments can be reworked and resubmitted if desired. The Final Assignment will carry 50 points. Final grades “on the margin” may be adjusted up or down depending on factors such as class attendance and participation. |
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Attendance |
Students are expected to attend all class sessions - arriving on time and staying to the end of class. Circumstances which prevent attendance will be honored in up to two instances. Absences in excess of two times may result in a lower grade for the course. Chronic late arrival or early departure may also affect the course grade. Contact the instructor when a special situation arises. All absences require that the instructor be informed in advance. |
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Students with Disabilities |
Qualified students with documented disabilities who may need classroom accommodations should make an appointment with the Enhancement Program – Disability Services office during the first two weeks of the semester. Appointments can be made by calling 651-962-6315 or in person in O’Shaughnessy Educational Center, room 119. |
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Instructor Background: |
Raymond E. Willis is Professor Emeritus of Strategic Management at the Curtis L. Carlson School of Management, University of Minnesota, and Adjunct Professor at St. Thomas University. He is the author of A Guide to Forecasting for Planners and Managers and co-author of Statistic Analysis and Modeling for Management Decision Making. He has taught and lectured at universities in Canada, France, and China as well as in the United States. |
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ETLS 752 - Spring 2008 Course Outline |
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Date |
Topics |
Readings |
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Jan 10
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Course introduction. Management, uncertainty, and foresight. An overview of the history of forecasting and planning and a comparison of approaches to forecasting. |
Willis, “Choosing and Evaluating Forecasts” and “Polishing the Crystal Ball”
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Jan 17
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Long range planning and forces of change - developing and using scenarios.
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Richardson, “Tomorrow’s Aviation: The Sky Won’t Be the Only Limit;” O’Neill, “Space Colonies: The High Frontier” Bell, “Exploring the ‘Singularity’” Allen, “Technology at the End of the Century” |
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Jan 24
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Initial presentations of project topics Using library and internet resources in developing your project Models of Decision Making Risk analysis and the payoff table |
Wack, “Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead” and “Shooting the rapids” Willis, “The Nature of a Decision”
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Jan 31
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Framing your topic - scope and emphasis Actors, technologies, and events, as forces for change Collecting, analyzing, and presenting data. Analyzing patterns of change.
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Bijker/Law, “General Introduction;” Willis, “Describing Technological Change” Willis, “Developing a Data Base;” Girifalco, Dynamics of Technological Change, Ch. 2, “Technical Progress and Performance,” pp. 46 – 60. |
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Feb 7
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Use of systems concepts in modeling Creating and using network (matrix) models. Creating and using flow, process, and sequence models.
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Saviotti, “Systems Theory and Technological Change” Willis,“A Network Model of a Sociotechnical System”
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Feb 14
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Analyzing and Projecting Trends |
Willis, “Analyzing and Projecting Trends” Willis, “Step Functions” Hales, “Intel's Grove warns of the end of Moore's Law” |
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Feb 21
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More on trends Developing regression, simulation, and systems dynamics models |
Bright, “Dynamic Modeling” Meadows, “The Predicament of Mankind” |
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Feb 28
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Developing and using a Baseline Scenario The use of narrative in scenarios Internal and external uncertainties and the development of alternative scenarios Describing and analyzing technologies and events.
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Willis, “Putting it All Together: Part 1 – The Baseline Scenario” Standage, “Tuning in to Technology’s Past” Mirsky, “Dog Bites Dog Story” The Engineer of 2020, “Preface,” “Executive Summary,” and “Appendix A, Scenarios” Saviotti/Metcalfe, “A Theoretical Approach” |
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Mar 6
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The process of technological change Models of the change process Identifying and analyzing forces in the external environment
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Rosenberg, “The Direction of Technological Change” Naughton, “You can read this in the loo. Now that's progress” Beckwith and Meadows, “The Future of Man: Optimism vs. Pessimism” Lomborg, et.al., “The ‘Dustbin of History – Limits to Growth” Marchetti, “Fifty-Year Pulsation in Human Affairs,” Michaels, “Echoes from a Siberian prison camp.” |
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Mar 13
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Identifying the actors behind change and their roles
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Bijker, “The Technological Frame,” Reynolds, “Defining Professional Boundaries” Motavalli, “Dumbing Down Over-Engineered Cars” Rosen, “The Closing of the PowerPoint Mind” (and other attached articles) Wells, “The Road to the Model T” |
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Mar 20 |
Vacation break |
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Mar 27 |
Analyzing and anticipating actors' objectives and behavior. Power and influence; coalitions and conflict. |
Godet, “Actors’ Moves and Strategies;” Willis, “Putting it All Together: Part 2 – Some Tools for Actor Analysis” |
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Apr 3
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The development of industries and the interaction between company strategies and technological change |
Porter, Competitive Strategy, Chapter 8, The Wright Brothers: Hallion, “How they Flew” and Hise, “How they Failed” Bernstein, “How the Airplane Learned to Fly” |
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Apr 10
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Creating scenarios and developing scenario themes. Event cross-impacts and event impacts on trends Trend impacts on events Developing scenario time lines |
Willis, “Putting it All Together: Part 3 – Tools for Creating Alternative Scenarios” |
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Apr 17
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The future of and evolving socioeconomic role of technology Impacts on industry, business, and culture
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Seely, “Research, Engineering, and Science in American Engineering Colleges: 1900-1960” |
Class Assignments
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Date due |
Topic |
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Jan 24 |
Assignment 1: Imagine or identify a potential client. Describe the long range issues of concern (or potential concern) to that client and the technological, political, economic, and social uncertainties involved in those issues. Long range will be defined as ten to twenty years in the future. This assignment will be reviewed but no grade will be assigned. |
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Feb 14 |
Assignment 2: Develop a systems model of a technology or industry related to your client’s concerns. This may involve focusing on only one or two of the issues identified in Assignment 1. Make a preliminary list of the actor/actor groups and technologies/sub-technologies to be included in your system. Describe the proposed boundaries of your system, the environment external to your system and the possible boundary spanners and boundary spanning activities. Develop a table describing how each actor/actor group and technology/sub-technology relates to all the others. Translate this into a network model and analyze that model. For at least one of the technologies in your system model, discuss how you would measure or describe the technical and service characteristics of the technology and how it might affect or be affected by the external environment. |
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Mar 6 |
Assignment 3: Present data for at least two but no more than three variables from the previous assignment that describe aspects of the environmental context, the actors characteristics, and/or the technical performance of the technology to be studied. Plot the trends, year-to-year differences, year-to-year ratios, and an X-Y plot of differences vs. previous levels. These analyses should each include at least ten years of annual data. Discuss your results. Describe in words the general patterns you observe and identify any potential discontinuities or outliers. Suggest possible causes of these discontinuities. Can you relate them to any Events or event sequences? Using this data and analysis, develop ten-year baseline projections for each variable. If you develop several different projections, choose one for your baseline and explain why it was chosen. Do not use “pre-canned” spreadsheet regression or forecasting routines unless you explain in detail why you chose the specific routine in preference to other alternatives and what exactly the routine does. This includes any uses of the “Data Analysis Tools” included in Excel. |
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Apr 17
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Final Assignment: Analyze the historical development of the technologies and industries included in you system. How has the system evolved? Discuss past changes in the actor/actor groups and technologies included in your system model and in its external environment. Using this analysis, develop a description of the next ten years consistent with your baseline projections. This should include both qualitative and quantitative description. Tables and graphs of the time series developed in the previous assignment can be included as appropriate. Do not include tables or graphs unless you have developed them yourself. What future changes might occur in the external environment that could impact on this baseline projection. This might include such things as new actor groups, critical events, or changes in the external economic, political, social, or technological environment. Using this analysis of the external environment as well as a consideration of possible “reverse salients” in the internal structure of your system, outline at least one different alternative future. Include descriptions of how this might affect your baseline trend projections and how this information might be used by your client. Note that this final paper will require consolidation and resubmission of your earlier papers. |
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Sources of Assigned Readings: Willis, Raymond E., “Choosing and Evaluating Forecasts,” Journal of Applied Manufacturing Systems, Vol. 3, No. 1, Spring, 1990, pp. 65-72 Willis, Raymond E., “Polishing the crystal ball: Technological Forecasting and Strategic Prospective,” Journal of Applied Manufacturing Systems, Vol.10, No. 1, Fall, 1999 Wack, Pierre, “Scenarios: uncharted waters ahead,” Harvard Business Review, September-October, 1985, pp.72-89 Wack, Pierre, “Scenarios: shooting the rapids,” Harvard Business Review, November-December, 1985, pp. 139-150 Richardson, Jerry, “Tomorrow’s Aviation: The Sky Won’t Be the Only Limit,” in Cornish, Edward, Ed., 1999 – The World of Tomorrow, Washington D.C.: World Future Society, 1978, pp. 57-65 O’ Neill, Gerard K., “Space Colonies: The High Frontier,” in Cornish, Edward, Ed., 1999 – The World of Tomorrow, Washington D.C.: World Future Society, 1978, pp. 66-74 Bell, James John, “Exploring the ‘Singularity’,” The Futurist, May-June, 2003, pp. 18- 24 Gleick, James, “Days of Future Past,” New York Times Magazine, December 21, 1997 Willis, Raymond E., “The Nature of a Decision,” from Willis, A Guide to Forecasting for Planners and Managers, Englewood Cliffs: Prentice-Hall, 1987, pp. 19-32 Allen, Frederick, “Technology at the End of the Century,” Invention & Technology, Winter 2000, Vol. 15, No. 3, PP. 10-16 Saviotti, P.P., “Systems Theory and Technological Change,” Futures (UK), December, 1986, pp. 773-386 Bright, James R., “Dynamic Modeling,” Practical Technology Forecasting, Austin, TX: The Industrial Management Center, 1978 Girifalco, Louis A., Dynamics of Technological Change, New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold, 1991
Hales, Paul “Intel's Grove warns of the end of Moore's Law: Feeling the heat,” Philadelphia Public Ledger, Wednesday 11 December 2002
Meadows, Dennis L., “The Predicament of Mankind,” The Futurist, August, 1971
Bijker, Wiebe E. and John Law, “General Introduction” in Bijker, Wiebe E. and John Law eds., Shaping Technology/Building Society, Cambridge MA: The MIT Press, third printing 2000
Saviotti, P.P. and J.S. Metcalfe, “A Theoretical Approach to the Construction of Technological Output Indicators,” Research Policy, Vol. 13, 1984, pp.141-151
Motavalli, Jim, “Dumbing Down Over-Engineered Cars,” New York Times, February 18, 2005
Christine Rosen, “The Closing of the PowerPoint Mind,” from: Christine Rosen, “The Image Culture.” The New Atlantis, Number 10, Fall 2005, pp. 27-46 (http://www.thenewatlantis.com/archive/10/rosen.htm). Thompson, Clive, “PowerPoint Makes You Dumb,” New York Times, December 14, 2003 Byrne, David, “Learning to Love PowerPoint,” Wired Magazine, Issue 11.09, September, 2003 Tufte, Edward, “PowerPoint Is Evil,” Wired Magazine, Issue 11.09, September, 2003
Standage, Tom, “Tuning in to Technology’s Past,” Technology Review, January, 2005, pg. 26
Rosenberg, Nathan, Perspectives on Technology, Cambridge (UK): Cambridge University Press, 1976, Ch, 6, “The Direction of Technological Change”
Naughton, John, “You can read this in the loo. Now that's progress,” The Observer, Sunday, November 25, 2001
The Future of Man: Optimism vs. Pessimism: Beckwith, Burnham P., “The Predicament of Man? A Reply” and Meadows, Dennis L., “ Response,” The Futurist, April, 1972, pp. 62-66
Lomborg, Bjorn and
Rubin, Olivier, “The Dustbin of History - Limits to Growth”
, Foreign Policy, Oct/Nov,
2002, Issue 133 Marchetti, Cesare, “Fifty-Year Pulsation in Human Affairs,” Futures (UK), June, 1986, pp. 376-388
Michaels, James W., et.al., “Echoes from a Siberian prison camp,” Forbes, November 9, 1981, pp. 164-174
Bijker, Wiebe E., Of Bicycles, Bakelites, and Bulbs, Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 1995, fourth printing 2002, the technological frame, pp. 122-127 Reynolds, Terry S., “Defining Professional Boundaries: Chemical Engineering in the Early 20th Century,” in Terry S. Reynolds (ed.), The Engineer in America, Chicago: The Univ. of Chicago Press, 1991, pp. 343-366 Porter, Michael E., Competitive Strategy, New York: The Free Press, 1980, Chapter 8, Industry Evolution,” pp.156-190 The Wright Brothers: Hallion, Richard P., “How They Flew” and Hise, Phaedra, “How They Failed,” Invention & Technology, Fall 2003, Vol. 19, No. 2, PP. 18-49 Bernstein, Mark, “How the Airplane Learned to Fly,” Invention & Technology, Summer 2005, Vol. 21, No. 1, PP. 12-19 Godet, Michel, “Actors’ Moves and Strategies: The Mactor Method, Futures (UK), July/August, 1991, pp. 605-622 Seely, Bruce, “Research, Engineering, and Science in American Engineering Colleges: 1900-1960,” in Stephen H. Cutcliffe and Terry S. Reynolds (eds.), Technology & American History, Chicago: The Univ. of Chicago Press, 1997, pp. 345-388 The following additional books have been requested for St. Thomas library reserve. All are optional reading for the course but may be useful for anyone seriously interested in scenario development or for ideas in developing your paper. None need to be read straight through but are good references on specific topics: Godet, Michel, From Anticipation to Action, Paris: UNESCO, 1994 Martino, Joseph P., Technological Forecasting for Decision Making, 2nd Edition, New York: North-Holland, 1983 Mosteller, Frederick and John W. Tukey, Data Analysis and Regression, Reading: Addison-Wesley, 1977 Porter, Alan L., etal., Forecasting and Management of Technology, New York: Wiley, 1991 Tukey, John W,, Exploratory Data Analysis, Reading: Addison-Wesley, 1977 Twiss, Brian C., Forecasting for Technologist and Engineers, London: Peter Peregrinus, 1992 Willis, Raymond E., A Guide to Forecasting for Planners and Managers, Englewood Cliffs: Prentice-Hall, 1987
If you run into specific problems with your paper, I may be able to suggest additional sources. Remember that there was life BI (before the internet). Hard copy books and journals still can be useful sources. As a side note, many of the books on technological change are catalogued under T14.5 and 174.5. You might find it worthwhile just to skim the St. Thomas library shelves some evening before or after class, at your local library, or at the University of Minnesota Libraries. You also may find it useful to become acquainted with the following journals:
Most are available in full text on the web but may need to be accessed through a subscribing library such as St. Thomas:
Technological Forecasting and Social Change (since 1969) This is probably the most technical in its coverage of the methodology of long range forecasting.
The Futurist, published by the World Future Society since 1967 covers the field of futurism generally but occasionally has some methodological articles. This is a good example of the more literary approach to technological forecasting.
Futures (UK since 1968) The coverage is somewhere between the previous two above.
The Journal of Forecasting and the International Journal of Forecasting cover forecasting in general but have some articles on long range forecasting.
Long Range Planning (UK) is more oriented toward planning in its various forms but does include articles on forecasting.
Business journals such as the Harvard Business Review also have occasional articles on forecasting but they tend to be less frequent.
You should find it useful as background to read some articles on the history of the specific technology or industry that you are analyzing. Good places to start would be the periodicals, Invention & Technology, Scientific American, and Technology Review.
Invention & Technology is relatively light reading with good articles on the history of different technologies.
Scientific American has been published since 1845 and is one of the best of the popular science journals in its approach to science and technology.
Technology Review is published by MIT but leans towards a popular science approach.
The New Atlantis, tends to have more “off-beat” articles but can be worth checking.
For a more academic/historical approach that focuses on the social and political context of technological change, see Technology and Culture.
If you have a more general interest in the history of technology, engineering or of business and management, suggestions are on a separate file on this disk; I will be glad to suggest additional readings. Finally, I should note that several of the assigned readings have come from: Wiebe E. Bijker, Thomas P. Hughes, & Trevor Pinch eds, The Social Construction of Technological Systems, Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 1999 W.E. Bijker and John Law, eds. Shaping Technology/Building Society, Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 1992 Stephen H. Cutcliffe and Terry S. Reynolds (eds.), Technology and American History, Chicago: The Univ. of Chicago Press, 1997 Terry S. Reynolds (ed.), The Engineer in America, Chicago: The Univ. of Chicago Press, 1991 All four contain some very good papers and references in addition to the papers selected for this class. They would be good places to start for someone interested in going beyond the material covered in this class. |
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